The Betfair Hurdle (formerly the Totesport Trophy) is one of the major handicap hurdles on the British national hunt calendar and takes place at Newbury on Saturday 9th February. The race is generally won by a less exposed hurdler, the last 3 winners had run in just 3 hurdles race prior to landing this.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (2001-2012):
5 to 7 year olds have taken 9 of the last 10 (from just over 77% of total runners) with the one exception being when Geos won the race for a second time as a 9yo.
The last 6 winners have all been aged 5 or 6.
horses carrying 10-10 or more: 3-12-83
horses carrying 10-9 or less: 7-17-132
6 of the last 8 winners carried 10-9 or less to victory.
Since 2000 2 of 4 winners to carry 10-10+ to victory had finished in first 2 in the Boylesports.com Hícap Hurdle (formerly the Pierse/MCR) on previous start
The other 2 were Copeland (who had finished 2nd in this race before) and Zarkandar (who had won the Triumph Hurdle the previous season)
horses rated 145 or more: 2-4-33
horses rated 131 to 144: 6-22-143
horses rated 130 or lower: 2-4-39
Both winners rated 145+ had won a grade 1 hurdle while both winners rated in the 120ís were trained by Gary Moore.
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (6 won)
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in 1 of their last 2 hurdles starts (exception was Geos when winning race for second time)
8 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better hurdle last time (2 exceptions were novice hurdlers that had run just 3 times)
9 of 10 winners had run no more than 4 times since August
9 of 10 winners had run in 15 or fewer hurdles (exception was Geos winning race for second time)
9 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap hurdles
8 of 10 winners were first or second season hurdlers (2 exceptions Geos and Copeland had previously finished 1st and 2nd in the race)
7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a hurdles race worth 16K+ (3 exceptions had all run in just 3 hurdles races and won last time out)
10 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race with 11+ runners
Cheltenhamís Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle winner: 117 (2-0-3)
Sportingbet Handicap Hurdle winner (Petit Robin): 102 (1-1-3)
Anniversary 4yo Hurdle winner (Grumeti): 7031 (1-1-4)
Boylesports.com H'cap Hurdle winner: 71 (1-0-2)
Dovecote Novice Hurdle winner (Grumeti): 4 (0-1-1)
Gerry Feilden winner (Lyvius): 4 (0-1-1)
Download The William Hill App Handicap Hurdle winner (Bourne): 02 (0-1-2)
The Ladbroke winner (Cause Of Causes): P0P3 (0-1-4)
Canaccord Genuity Handicap Hurdle winner (Petit Robin): 06 (0-0-2)
Racing Post Hurdle winner (Olofi): 97 (0-0-2)
32Red Handicap Hurdle winner (Lord Of House): 8070 (0-0-4)
3 of 10 winners ran in Sportingbet Handicap Hurdle at Sandown on 8 Dec, finishing 173
3 of 10 winners ran in Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle last time, finishing 119
2 of 10 winners ran in Boylesports.com H'cap Hurdle last time, finishing 51
Nicky Henderson (2-4-29) has won this 3 times since 2000, though his last winner was in 2004 and his 18 runners since then have produced 0 wins and just 2 places.
Gary Moore (2-2-10) trained 2 of last 5 winners & also saddled a placed finisher last year.
Jonjo OíNeill (1-1-9) & Paul Nicholls (1-0-10) have saddled a winner in the past 3 years and they were responsible for the 1st & 2nd last year.
Philip Hobbs (0-6-15) hasnít won any of the last 10 runnings but has seen 9 of his 15 runners finishing in the top six, 6 getting placed.
David Pipe (0-3-8) and Alan King (0-3-8) have accounted for 6 of the 12 horses to finish in the first 4 in the past 3 renewals.
Irish trained runners (2-2-27) have provided 2 of last 10 winners from approximately 13% of total runners. Both Irish winners ran in Boylesports.com Hícap Hurdle on previous start. Willie Mullins (0-0-8) has seen all 8 of his runners finish unplaced.
No strong trend on prices though 5 of the last 8 winners went off at 12/1 or bigger including a 50/1 winner in 2007.
Favourites (3-3-10) have won 3 of the last 10 & show a level stakes profit of 3.75.
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
∑ Aged 5 to 7 (or finished in first 2 in this race before)
∑ Carrying 10-9 or less (or previously finished in first 2 in this or Boylesport.com Hídl)
∑ Finished in first 3 last time in a class 2 or better hurdle (or a novice hurdler)
∑ First or second season hurdler
∑ Run in 6 or fewer handicap hurdles (won no more than 2)
∑ Won or placed in a big handicap hurdle this season (or run in 3 or fewer hurdles races)
∑ Won a hurdle with 11+ runners in it
∑ Finished in first 5 in Boylesports.com or Steel Plate and Sections Hícap Hurdle last time
∑ Finished in first 3 in Sportingbet H'cap Hurdle at Sandown
∑ Trained by Gary Moore, Alan King, David Pipe or Philip Hobbs